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New info 12jan2025 - Muan 9am 29dec2024 Jeju 7C2216 Boeing crash recorders stop minutes before the impact.
EASA ID's submitted: #205246 today, 205425, 205207, 205205, 205203, and the fkirst was ID#205201 on 2jan2025.
EASA ID #205246 said
It seems best to continue through your "Aerodrome" contact even tho this is about the aircraft.... It is a continuation of ID #205245, and its referenced previous contacts. My Muan crash analysis is in my blog at https://jim-quinn.blogspot.
The Heathrow crash in 2008 reported in AAIB 1-2010 also suffered electrical problems - the pilot even selected APU start during the descent finals! But no diagram nor discussion of that or the elecrical system in that very poor AAIB report, which is another reason I am suspicious of Boeing's Designs in this Muan crash too.
Please see my Heathrow crash review in
https://jim-quinn7.blogspot.
for analytical help to you -
my background is in Tornado Flight Development at Warton, England from mid 1974 where we had good and extensive recordings of course, not expected on a production aircraft of any sort, but encouraging very detailed analytical work...... as in this short blog - I hope you will agree.
EASA ID #205245:
This follows the sequence which started with ID #205201 and ended previously with ID #205207, but which follows further here:
https://www.reuters.com/world/
declares that the On Aircraft Recorders stopped a few minutes before the crash at Muan Airport, South Korea at about 9am on 29dec2024.
This type of incident occurred on the Boeing 777 crash at Heathrow Airport in 2008 (QAR stopped 45 seconds before crash - the disgusting AAIB non Report 1-2010 mentioned it, but did not explore it at all). The very poor AAIB 1-2010 was a cover up for something not mentioned odd?
JimQ
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29dec2024 0900am
The Muan airport, South Korea Aircraft crash, 15 year old Boeing
Boeing HL8088 7C2216 at near 9am 29dec1942 Muan, South Korea:
Skip to 31dec2024 2020GMT entry below to see thoughts on the crash itself
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- the following looks at improving aerodromes themselves:
3jan2025 0530GMT: What if we plant many saplings/hedges on the grass runway extension (as in the Heathrow crash photos below)? That grass is never used by an aircraft except in a crash, so is dead space to the perimeter fence, and as long as the saplings do not grow into huge oak trees..... so choose the right structural sort of sapling, and a skidding aircraft will thus be brought to a stop, as we know they do in other "crash in jungle" accidents. Those saplings would have worked for the 2008 Heathrow crash too, and merely need replacing afterwards. The diameter of a Boeing 737 is 3.8m and of a 777: 6.2m, and of an Airbus A320: 4.0m, so we need saplings which grow to about 2.5m (about 6 ft) maximum, I think - that height is easier for pruning too, but I would rather not, for that is maintenance and costly over the years. I am happy to evolve that height in thinking..... primarily, I need a graph of height and pitch vs aircraft decel rate..... 3G nominal design? for almost all passengers survival. From 130kts say, 3G deceleration would be a stop distance of 76m (250 ft). Or 100kts = 45m (148 ft), 70kts = 22m (73 ft). Will the passenger seat mounts take that deceleration rate?
1) The field maple tree (Acer campestre) can grow up to 2.5 meters tall. I have found a pack of 12 on the internet at 60-80cm for $25, but I really need to know their height limit, and how long that takes. Buying at an already 2m tall is much more expensive.
2) Cherry laurel (Prunus laurocerasus) is a hedge that can grow to be about 2.5 meters tall. It has large, glossy green leaves and produces white flowers in the spring and black or red cherry-like fruits in the fall. I do not like this one, because of the fruits that will Attract Birds, and become Mushy on the ground when they drop.
The Field Maple Tree may be cost effective - needs a bit more horticultural advice/thought yet....
3jan2025 1205GMT: I thought I would explore a bit for starters ........ Google search provided several texts: Birds generally tend to avoid trees with strong, pungent smells, overly reflective surfaces, or a lack of suitable nesting sites, which can include certain varieties of conifers like Cypress and Pine, as they often lack the dense foliage most birds prefer for nesting; however, most birds will still utilize them for perching or quick shelter if necessary. Conifers with sparse foliage: While some smaller birds might use them for cover, larger birds may find it difficult to build nests in open conifer trees like Cypress or certain types of pine. Trees with strong scents: Certain trees like those with strong garlic or citrus smells can deter birds due to their overpowering odor. Trees with excessive reflective surfaces: Shiny leaves or reflective objects placed around trees can scare birds away due to their perceived threat. Birds also dislike the smells of peppermint, vinegar, citronella, chili pepper and chili powder.
The leaves of Box (Boxus sempervirens) have an acid smell.... does that deter birds generally or just one species or not at all? Common box: Can grow to be 2 meters tall, but can also be used for dwarf hedges. If left untrimmed, it can reach 3 meters in height. Buxus macrophylla 'Faulkner': Grows to a maximum of 1.5 meters and barely needs pruning.
We therefore have some tree selection options ..... and airfields will have different types of birds depending on locality.... so no one solution for everywhere? And a further thought - grasses do not smell, so the smelly sapling idea might actually be relatively beneficial at reducing birds around an airfield.....!! ? Not just at the ends of the runway either....
2jan2025 2105GMT: I have concluded there is no other cost effective slowing mechanism to prevent such as the long runway slide to impact of the Muan crash Boeing on 29dec2024. The following illustrates the sort of argument that Design Engineers go through when contemplating a problem. It is not a waste of time for I have not seen this argument anywhere before, and it all goes towards my CPD, for this sort of thing had to be done at some time, years ago, when dimensions for safe airports were (re-)established.
There remains the question of the location of the structure at Muan Airport, that the Boeing hit so violently on 29dec2024...... The investigation will answer that one -
Oh, Politicians (in South Korea too) stay out of Your crash investigation costly panics please, leave the Experts (Pilots, Engineers, Researchers) to it!! And, the crash recorder can be read within minutes once properly connected for a few significant traces, so stop the media telling everyone it takes months - this is the report preparation time, not the read it time to an initial understanding.
You can skip to 02jan2025 1650GMT
for the crash event description/thinking..... just after the Heathrow photos below. Or continue with my "what-construction" thoughts..... which do not produce any other low cost solution!
2jan2025 1950GMT Cost effectiveness matters - how many runway sliders have there been like at Muan, in how many years, and how many deaths and costly injuries (and aircraft repair costs or writeoffs too) - new airport crash prevention construction costs money - what Should we Afford?
A Boeing 737 only costs about $100 million, but those 179 dead passengers and two surviving but damaged crew at Muan, insurance payouts will be much larger. There are over 1200 International Airports in the World...... $1million on each adds up to $1.2 billion, so we really do need low cost, low annual maintenance, ideas....
(2040GMT:) Maintenance cost may be a big Problem - a net could be made from a long life plastic, but it needs to behave a bit like elastic, and thus I think of the chains that hold a ship back from a rapid big wave creating launch into the water. The maintenance part is rewinding the necessarily heavy chain (for it needs big enough inertia) back to its waiting position, making sure it is free to move on the next impact if any, making sure it is thus kept weed/corrosion free.......
but it needs to move very rapidly at first because of the high speed of the aircraft, and slow it down at, say, about 3G (?). From 130kts say, this would be a stop distance of 76m (250 ft). Or 100kts = 45m (148 ft), 70kts = 22m (73 ft). This is not going to be possible at 3G, and Navy Pilots have to accept Far More than a 3G decel..... The USA Navy use long hydraulic cylinders to slow the arrestor wire, but they are expensive and only worth it if you might go to war. Do the RAF actually provision it for their combat aircraft on land? - or just a mislead story....
I have changed two words in my 1240GMT text immediately below - Clearly becomes "if", and should becomes "could" in the 1st line.
2jan2025 1240GMT If every airport could have an aircraft restraint at the end of the runway to allow for "no braking" (as in Muan airport crash) like some RAF stations have a/c carrier landing restraints/nets - but an airliner will be bigger and heavier, so cost effective design needed - and on-aircraft hook to catch the wire as on Tornado? (added at 1430GMT) - low mass big tube passenger aircraft structure, limited strength AND in any case, way too expensive. How much deceleration needed - are aircraft nose designs able to take a strong deceleration by a net (1500GMT)? Formula 1 uses deepish sand, so is more of an option..... but a smooth belly would take a lengthy deceleration distance!
However, Grass was good enough for the Boeing 777 crash at Heathrow on 17jan2008 - the crash initial impact point was about 340m from runway (AAIB report 1-2010, fig 14 below), so grass was enough to slow the Boeing 777 because it stopped at the runway end, but it did have wheels down and they dug in, leaving big track marks in the grass (AAIB report 1-2010, fig1 below) - nobody died, and the deceleration rate was about 0.7G.
Without wheels down, as in Muan, the slide would have been longer (and, in the reverse landing direction .....) that Boeing 737 could have breached the Heathrow perimeter fence (runway tarmac friction additive at Muan, but ... quantify). What lengths of Safety to the perimeter are Formally Required at Airports? (Added at 1650GMT) :
02jan2025 1650GMT: Aircraft will not always slide precisely along the runway, but some angle off it, like Tornado P03 did once, and thus any structure location must allow for this too.
Note also - The Muan airport crash on 29dec2924 may have been due to double engine bird strike - thus there would be no reverse thrust possible either, so it would have been the longest ever belly slide too.
EASA notified at 1242GMT 2jan2025 - their ID #205201 and at 1701GMT 2jan2025, their ID #205203
I have not heard what type of bird Muan Airport warned the Pilot of HL8088 7C2216 about on 29dec2024.
31dec2024 2020GMT, extra help to explain:
I think there was no undercarriage problem, for on approach to Muan airport, the Pilot would have selected U/C DOWN in preparation for landing, and if he had a problem he would have told the tower at the Muan airport immediately, to arrange fire and ambulance crew.
31dec2024 1750 GMT - not much thinking going on. ITV News at 1740 GMT, just reported that undercarriage was the fault.
Nonsense - if so, then some minutes before landing Pilot would have flagged the problem to the airport, so clearly the u/c was working. Then Pilot decided to go around, so selected u/c up, and had no chance to lower it when the aircraft suddenly dropped - because both engines were heavily birdstruck? and lost loads of thrust..... Hudson Bay crash years ago in USA was due to Geese - strikes on both engines - big birds those!
30dec2024 1200 GMT as typed then: Could be a bird strike just as Pilot was going to abort landing and go around for another attempt, but aircraft dropped and yawed unexpectedly ?, so could be Pilot did not select undercarriage down while coping with control of aircraft. Note that the Pilot had probably just selected undercarriage UP, for the go around. The many Deaths were caused by aircraft hitting solid wall at end of runway.
Clearly we need crash recorder readout to know what Pilot was doing.....
A similar aircraft the next day (30dec2024) had to flight abort from Gimpo airport, so landed back at Gimpo, because of a "normally rare" undercarriage problem (it did not stow inside the aircraft after takeoff as expected?) - likely unrelated, but checks/maintenance for That Aircraft would naturally follow.
Nevertheless, a Politician ordered the whole fleet be checked for undercarriage problems - waste of time and money for Muan crash may be "a no blame of pilot in circumstances" not undercarriage failure, and the last flights of all these other aircraft were clearly quite normal anyway and their maintenance would have been done at the declared and agreed periodicity for this older type of aircraft, so Priority was Muan crash recorder readout quickly......
and any inspection for an undercarriage failure possibility, really needs to know what they should be looking for, from the Muan crash failure - if any.
What maintenance record does the crash aircraft have for its undercarriage?
Jim 30 dec2024
31dec2024 0700GMT: I was at Warton when P08, below, crashed into the Irish Sea and we lost Russ Pengelly and John Gray, Pilot and Nav. I went to Russ's Service on 5july1979. The TurboUnion RB199 engine team at Warton had to collect all of their records together to give to the Government REO for review - this included the installation ground runs data from both engines of course.
So will Jeju Airlines Records for the 29dec2024 Muan crash Boeing of course.
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